JIQ Market Barometer | August 2026 | Edition 6

Middle East Still Down 16% on the Year, While Global Bizjet Activity, Utilization and OEM Backlog Pushed Higher Through July

Global business jet departures grew 4.9% over the last twelve months, the active fleet is being flown harder than at any point since before the pandemic, and combined OEM backlog across the major manufacturers has climbed to $61.6 billion. Overall, key indicators point to a healthy bizav industry position through July.

However, the energy shock that began earlier this year is still working through the system. Pre-owned transaction velocity, which was running above 15% year-over-year in December, has decelerated to low single digits. The Middle East, a small but fast-growing market until February, remains down on the year. Asking prices are correcting, and large-cabin values have slipped back to roughly where they sat in 2019.

The full JIQ Market Barometer pairs JETNET's serial-number-level asset data with WINGX's tail-level flight activity to reconcile them. The four chapters below are written on a July 2026 trailing-twelve-month basis.

Richard Koe & Nick Koscinski · WINGX Research ·  5 min read

Chapter 01

Macro Climate

Executive Summary

The macro backdrop is resilient but increasingly two-sided. The structural drivers of business aviation demand, UHNWI wealth and corporate profitability, remain firmly positive. On the other hand, the early-2026 energy shock has reversed disinflation, weighed on consumer confidence and made further rate cuts harder to justify.

Key Takeaways

• Growth held, but the forecast was trimmed. Global GDP held at 3.5% in 2025, while the IMF has cut its 2026 forecast to 3.0% on trade tensions and the US-Israel-Iran conflict.

• The wealth base keeps expanding. The UHNWI population reached a record of more than 684,000 in 2025, up from 658,000 a year earlier, and is projected to grow at a 5.6% CAGR through 2031.
• The largest latent pool sits outside North America. A wealth-to-fleet view shows the mature North American base already largely converted to ownership. That leaves Australasia and APAC as the largest untapped opportunity, with a wealth base that far outruns the installed fleet.
• Corporate profits set a record. US corporate profits reached a record $3.95 trillion in Q1 2026. The conflict did not weigh on first-quarter earnings as some had expected.
• The two best demand signals are both still rising. UHNWI population and corporate profits remain the highest-correlating structural drivers of bizjet departures in the dataset, and both continue to climb.
• Fuel is the clearest downside. Crude and jet fuel posted their sharpest move since 2022 around the Strait of Hormuz disruption, though prices have eased through the spring as the market absorbs the initial shock.
• Disinflation has reversed. US inflation has turned back above target and the Euro Area holds near 3%, which unwinds earlier progress and limits how far central banks can cut.
• Consumer confidence remains weak. University of Michigan sentiment sits near record lows, a persistent soft spot in an otherwise firm demand picture.

Chapter 02

Aircraft Activity

Executive Summary

Flight activity is clear evidence that macro strength is translating into real demand, though the 4.9% total growth figure is not broad-based. Demand is concentrating in flexible ownership models and emerging markets while traditional corporate structures contract, and the Middle East is still working back from its sharp February reversal.

Key Takeaways

• A strong headline, led by North America. Global departures totaled 3.99 million on a July-26 TTM basis, up 4.9%, with North America accounting for 71.6% of activity.
• Emerging markets lead and the Middle East is recovering. Africa (+10.4%) and Latin America (+7.4%) led TTM growth. The Middle East is now down 5.7%, though monthly declines have narrowed from 20%+ early in the year to -4.7% in July.
• Fractional keeps pulling away from the market. Fractional ownership expanded 10.7% on a TTM basis and 8.2% in July, one of the most consistent outperformers across every timeframe.
• Corporate structures are under pressure. Corporate Flight Departments contracted 7.1% on a TTM basis and Branded Charter softened 0.6%. Both suggest demand is displacing toward fractional programs.
• The fleet is being worked harder. Year-to-date global average utilization reached 21.4 hours per tail per month, 10.5% above 2019 levels, with Super Midsize jets leading at 30.8 hours.
• The active fleet keeps growing into the demand. Active aircraft are approaching 20,500 on a monthly basis, and hours per tail are still rising, so demand growth continues to outpace supply additions.
• Fractional leaders are diverging sharply. NetJets holds a 13.3% share of global activity, up 10.4%, and Flexjet grew 13.5%. Wheels Up remains the outlier, down 25.7% on a TTM basis and below its 2019 traffic.
• The connectivity advantage holds. Business aviation still serves roughly twenty times the unique city pairs of the top global airlines combined.

Chapter 03

Aircraft Market

Executive Summary

The transaction market is where the shock is most visible. Pre-owned velocity has decelerated sharply from its late-2025 pace and asking prices are correcting, even as new deliveries extend their recovery and OEM order books sit at decade highs. The market is absorbing a near-term confidence shock while multi-year demand visibility stays intact.

Key Takeaways

• Deliveries extended their recovery. Estimated deliveries reached 544 units year-to-date 2026, up 9.2% year-over-year and building on 2025's 8.2% growth. North America held an 86% share at 468 units.
• Pre-owned velocity decelerated hard. Transactions reached 2,815 on a TTM basis, up 3.7%, a sharp step down from the 17.0% full-year 2025 growth rate. The TTM trend cooled from above +15% in December to just +3% by July.
• Large-cabin trading bucked the trend. Large Jets posted the strongest cabin-class growth at +13.7% with 812 transactions, while Small Jets held flat as the most actively traded class at 1,342.
• Asking prices are correcting toward normal. Small Jets averaged $3.52mn and Medium Jets $5.16mn on a TTM basis. Large Jets eased to $14.20mn, effectively back to 2019 levels after leading the pandemic-era surge.
• Liquidity is splitting by age. Average days on market rose to 96, up 1.3%. The newest aircraft (0-5 years) still sell in about 53 days, while every band 16 years and older sits above 100.
• Order books are at decade highs. Combined backlog across the four major OEMs reached $61.6 billion. Gulfstream and Bombardier hold almost 75% of the total, and Bombardier's backlog is up 35.4% year-over-year.
• Book-to-bill still signals expansion. Bombardier and Gulfstream ran at 1.5x and Embraer at 1.1x in Q2 2026. All four manufacturers posted expanding backlogs, which extends production visibility into 2027-28.
• Fractional providers are taking more new aircraft. Program holders captured 18% of new deliveries so far in 2026, up from 10% pre-pandemic. End users remain dominant at 64% of deliveries.

Chapter 04

Aircraft Inventory

Executive Summary

Supply is the structural counterweight to the demand-side noise. Transaction velocity has softened, but for-sale inventory is not rebuilding. It continues to drift lower as a share of the fleet, which keeps the market in seller-friendly territory. The inventory base is also aging, and a retirement wave looks likely.

Key Takeaways

• Supply and demand remain in rough balance. Roughly 1,766 aircraft were available for sale monthly against 2,815 transactions on a TTM basis, a modest easing from full-year 2025's 1,835 inventory and near-2,970 transactions.
• Inventory is still tight by historical standards. The inventory-to-transaction ratio sits at about 0.63:1, well below the typical 0.85:1 of 2013-2019.
• For-sale share keeps drifting lower. Inventory fell to 6.6% of the operational fleet on a TTM basis, down from 7.3% last year and far below the 9-12% range of the prior decade.
• The market is increasingly two-tier by age. 74% of for-sale inventory is now 16 years or older, up from 70% a year ago and 57% in 2015. The newest aircraft are just 6% of listings.
• The fleet has compounded steadily for 25 years. The global installed fleet has more than doubled over the last quarter century, sustained through multiple cycles by resilient demand and minimal retirements.
• Low retirements are storing up future supply. Continued low scrapping rates leave a growing base of 1990s and 2000s aircraft approaching end of economic life. That sets up a probable retirement wave.

Bizjets only; turboprops excluded. Data through July 2026 unless otherwise noted. Sources: JETNET; WINGX; Global ATC and ADSB records; FRED; IMF; Knight Frank; company filings. 2026 figures may be subject to revision as transactions and deliveries are reported and verified.

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These four findings are a starting point. The full report covers what each of the trends means for aircraft that operators are planning to buy or sell, and what the regional breakdown of where business aviation is growing and where it is contracting tells you about market positioning heading into H2 2026.

Built for people who work with aircraft data every day.

• 76 pages of structured analysis combining JETNET transaction and inventory data with WINGX global flight intelligence
• Sections: Macro Climate, Aircraft Activity, Aircraft Market, Aircraft Inventory
• Sources: JETNET, WINGX, IMF, FRED, Knight Frank, OEM Filings
• Includes OEM backlog, operator rankings, corridor data, fleet utilisation, and pricing trends