JIQ Market Barometer | October 2026 | Edition 8

Order Books and Utilization Push Higher, but Fuel and Confidence Keep the Recovery Honest

Business jet departures rose 4.2% worldwide over the last twelve months, to just over 4 million. The active fleet is being flown harder than at any point since before the pandemic, the major OEMs are sitting on a combined backlog of $61.6 billion, and the IMF has nudged its 2026 global growth forecast back up. Through September, business aviation is in a solid position.

That said, the energy shock from earlier this year isn’t done. Crude and jet fuel eased across the spring and summer, then turned higher again. Consumer confidence has slipped back toward its lows, and pre-owned transaction growth, which was running above 15% year-over-year last December, has cooled to barely positive. The Middle East is still down on the year, though its monthly declines keep narrowing.

The full JIQ Market Barometer combines JETNET’s serial-number-level asset data with WINGX’s tail-level flight activity and reconciles the two. All four chapters below use a September 2026 trailing-twelve-month basis.

Richard Koe & Nick Koscinski · WINGX Research · 5 min read

Chapter 01

Executive Summary

The macro picture is holding up, and at the headline level it looks a little better than it did last edition, even though the cross-currents have sharpened. UHNWI wealth and corporate profitability, the two structural drivers of business aviation demand, are still positive and still climbing. Against that, the early-2026 energy shock has flared up again, disinflation has reversed, and consumer confidence is stuck near record lows.

Key Takeaways

• The growth outlook was upgraded. The IMF’s October World Economic Outlook lifted its 2026 global GDP forecast to 3.1%, up a tenth from the 3.0% it had cut to in July, as trade-tension and Middle East conflict risks eased from their peak; the 2027 forecast held at 3.4%.

• The wealth base keeps growing. The UHNWI population reached a record of more than 684,000 in 2025, up from 658,000 a year earlier. It’s projected to grow about 4.3% in 2026 and at a 5.6% CAGR through 2031.

• The biggest untapped pool is outside North America. Against a global benchmark of 27.1 UHNWIs per based jet, North America’s mature base sits at 14.3, since most of that wealth has already converted to ownership. Australasia and APAC runs at 163.3, roughly six times the benchmark and the largest remaining opportunity.

• Corporate profits at record highs. US corporate profits reached a record $4.3 trillion in Q2 2026, up nearly 30% year-over-year and above the Q1 high.

• The two best demand signals are both still rising. UHNWI population (0.84) and corporate profits (0.83) correlate more closely with bizjet departures than any other structural driver in our dataset.

• Fuel is the clearest downside. Crude and jet fuel had their sharpest move since 2022 around the Strait of Hormuz disruption. Prices eased through the spring and summer, but they have since climbed again, with jet fuel moving first.

• Disinflation has gone into reverse. US inflation has settled back in the mid-3s and the Euro Area has drifted up toward 3%. That undoes earlier progress and limits how far central banks can cut.

• Consumer confidence slipped back. University of Michigan sentiment fell to 48 in September after a brief summer bounce to 55. That leaves it near historic lows and makes it the persistent soft spot in an otherwise firm demand picture.

Chapter 02

Aircraft Activity

Executive Summary

Flight activity shows the macro strength turning into real demand, though the 4.2% headline isn’t evenly spread. Demand is concentrating in flexible ownership models and emerging markets while traditional corporate structures shrink. The Middle East is still climbing back from its sharp February reversal.

Key Takeaways

• North America drives a strong headline. Global departures reached 4.01 million on a September 2026 TTM basis, up 4.2%. North America accounted for 71.6% of that activity.
• Emerging markets lead. Africa (+11.8%) and Latin America (+4.9%) posted the fastest TTM growth. The Middle East is still down 7.9% on the year, but its monthly declines have narrowed from more than 20% early in the year to -4.3% in September.
• Fractional keeps pulling ahead. Fractional ownership grew 9.9% on a TTM basis, 9.8% year-to-date, and 6.0% in September, making it one of the most consistent outperformers across every timeframe.
• Corporate structures are under pressure. Corporate Flight Departments shrank 8.6% on a TTM basis and 13.2% in September, and Branded Charter slipped 1.5%. Demand appears to be moving toward fractional programs.
• The fleet is working harder. Average global utilization so far this year is 20.7 hours per tail per month, 10.8% above 2019. Super Midsize jets lead at 29.6 hours.
• The active fleet is growing, but demand is growing faster. Monthly active aircraft are now above 20,500 and hours per tail are still rising, so demand growth continues to outpace supply additions.
• The fleet operator leaders are diverging. NetJets holds 13.4% of global activity, up 9.8%, and Flexjet grew 11.9%. Wheels Up is the exception: down 28.8% on a TTM basis and well below its 2019 traffic.
• Connectivity is still a big advantage. Business aviation serves more than 381,000 unique city pairs, against about 20,200 for the top global airlines combined. That is roughly nineteen times as many.

Chapter 03

Aircraft Market

Executive Summary

The shock shows up most clearly in the transaction market. Pre-owned velocity has slowed sharply from its late-2025 pace and asking prices are correcting, even as new deliveries keep recovering and OEM order books sit at decade highs. Confidence has taken a near-term hit, but multi-year demand visibility is intact.

Key Takeaways

• Deliveries are still recovering. Full-year 2025 deliveries hit a post-GFC high of 814 units, beating the 2019 peak of 804. The 2026 baseline forecast of 830 would be another record, and the top end is near 853, though growth should moderate to around 2% after the near-8% gain in 2025.
• Pre-owned velocity has slowed. TTM transactions reached 2,806, up just 1.8%, well down from 16.8% growth for full-year 2025. The TTM growth rate cooled from above +15% in December to roughly +2% by September.
• Large-cabin trading went the other way. Large Jets posted the strongest cabin-class growth at +14.6%, with 818 transactions. Small Jets, still the most actively traded class at 1,322, eased on the year.
• Asking prices are settling back toward normal. On a TTM basis, Small Jets averaged $3.55mn and Medium Jets $5.09mn. Large Jets eased to $14.66mn, effectively back to 2019 levels after leading the pandemic-era surge.
• Liquidity depends more and more on age. Average days on market was roughly flat at 95. The newest aircraft (0-5 years) still sell in about 48 days, while every age band from 16 years up sits above 100.
• Order books are at decade highs. The four major OEMs have a combined backlog of $61.6 billion. Gulfstream and Bombardier hold almost 75% of it, and Bombardier’s backlog is up 35.4% year-over-year.
• Book-to-bill still points to expansion. Bombardier and Gulfstream ran at 1.5x in Q2 2026 and Embraer at 1.1x. All four manufacturers grew their backlogs, extending production visibility into 2027-28.
• Fractional providers are taking a bigger share of new aircraft. Program holders took 18% of new deliveries so far in 2026, up from 10% before the pandemic. End users are still the largest buyers at 64%.

Chapter 04

Aircraft Inventory

Executive Summary

Supply is what offsets the weakness on the demand side. Transactions have slowed, but for-sale inventory isn’t rebuilding. It keeps drifting lower as a share of the fleet, which keeps the market seller-friendly. The inventory base is also getting older, and a retirement wave looks increasingly likely.

Key Takeaways

• Supply and demand are roughly balanced. About 1,740 aircraft were for sale in a typical month against 2,806 TTM transactions. That is a modest easing from full-year 2025, which had 1,835 aircraft in inventory and nearly 2,970 transactions.
• Inventory is still tight by historical standards. The inventory-to-transaction ratio is about 0.62:1, well below the 0.85:1 typical of 2013-2019.
• The for-sale share keeps falling. Inventory dropped to 6.6% of the operational fleet on a TTM basis, down from 7.3% last year and far below the 9-12% range of the previous decade.
• The market is splitting into two tiers by age. Aircraft 16 years or older now make up 74% of for-sale inventory, up from 70% a year ago and 57% in 2015. The newest aircraft are just 6% of listings.
• The fleet has grown steadily for 25 years. The global installed fleet has more than doubled since 2001, from 11,000 aircraft to roughly 25,700. Resilient demand and very few retirements kept it growing through several cycles.
• Low retirements are storing up future supply. Scrappage is still running around 1% of the fleet, below historical norms. A growing base of 1990s and 2000s aircraft is nearing the end of its economic life, so a retirement wave is probably coming.

Bizjets only; turboprops excluded. Data through September 2026 unless otherwise noted. Sources: JETNET; WINGX; Global ATC and ADSB records; FRED; IMF; Knight Frank; company filings. 2026 figures may be subject to revision as transactions and deliveries are reported and verified.

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These four findings are a starting point. The full report covers what each of the trends means for aircraft that operators are planning to buy or sell, and what the regional breakdown of where business aviation is growing and where it is contracting tells you about market positioning heading into H3 2026.

Built for people who work with aircraft data every day.

• 76 pages of structured analysis combining JETNET transaction and inventory data with WINGX global flight intelligence
• Sections: Macro Climate, Aircraft Activity, Aircraft Market, Aircraft Inventory
• Sources: JETNET, WINGX, IMF, FRED, Knight Frank, OEM Filings
• Includes OEM backlog, operator rankings, corridor data, fleet utilisation, and pricing trends