On July 24, JIQ by JETNET hosted a live webinar reviewing business aviation's status at the halfway point of 2026. The panel brought three different vantage points: Richard Aboulafia, Managing Director at AeroDynamic Advisory, Kevin Schwab, Strategic Planning Manager at Honeywell Aerospace, and Bill Ostrove, Manager of Market Intelligence at Global Jet Capital. Richard Koe, Managing Director at JIQ, moderated.

Watch the Full Webinar Here: Webinar: Review of Business Aviation Industry Status and Outlook at Half-Way 2026

Here's what stood out.

Supply constraints, not demand discipline, are keeping this cycle in check

Aboulafia says it's the strangest and best upturn he's seen. In past cycles, OEMs pushed metal out the door until demand signals told them to stop, which is what eventually overheats a market. This time, supply chain limits are doing that job instead. Manufacturers simply can't build fast enough to overshoot demand, so availability keeps tightening and prices keep climbing without the usual overproduction risk.

Schwab's numbers from the OEM side show that constraint easing, but not gone. Honeywell has cut the list of critical parts holding up production from a few hundred during COVID to single digits now. That progress lifted deliveries about 6% last year after several flat years, and Honeywell is forecasting high single digit to low double digit growth in output this year. Backlogs still stretch up to four years in some cases, which Schwab called untenable, so there's more work ahead even as the supply picture improves.

Tariff worries didn't play out the way anyone expected

Bill Ostrove walked through how tariff fears actually moved the pre-owned market. Buyers rushed transactions into Q1 2025 to get ahead of tariffs that were still being finalized, which created a spike that made Q1 2026 look like a decline by comparison. That gap has been closing through Q2, helped along by catch-up in FAA reporting data. Ostrove doesn't expect the tariffs themselves to leave a lasting mark. Demand for these assets held up through the uncertainty.

The pre-owned market is also splitting in two. Newer aircraft list for a shorter time and sell quickly. Older aircraft are showing up on the market more often and sitting longer once they're there. Overall inventory has stayed fairly flat and even come in lower than this time last year, but that headline number is hiding the divide underneath it.

Fractional ownership is adding customers, not replacing owners

Fractional fleets are up 65 to 70% since 2019, and utilization on those aircraft runs 800 to 1,200 hours a year, 3 to 4 times the average for a wholly owned jet. Schwab shared data from Honeywell's annual Buyer Expectations survey showing 10 to 20% of owners who fly their own aircraft also hold fractional shares. About half of them said they're using the fractional share to add capacity, not to hedge against giving up their jet. Fewer than 10% of operators surveyed are planning to eliminate their flight department entirely.

Mid-size and super mid-size aircraft, like the Latitude and Praetor 500, are driving a lot of this. They offer a bigger cabin than earlier aircraft in that class without a jump in direct operating costs, which makes them attractive to both fractional operators and private buyers.

Schwab also flagged Europe as a market where the fractional model has room to grow. A shared asset lowers emissions per passenger, which European flyers care about, and the region's dense hub network should help fractional operators reduce empty legs once their fleets reach the scale North American operators already have.

The ultra long range segment may be nearing a ceiling

Aboulafia laid out a pattern he traced while researching his book, Time Machines, roughly every decade, the top of the market resets, with maximum price climbing 40 to 50% and capability climbing alongside it. The G4 to G5, then Global Express to Global 7500 and Falcon 10X. Green prices at the top end now sit around $80 million.

So what's the next step change? Range crossed the Pacific in the 1990s. Cabins are already huge. Speed tops out around Mach .925 without a supersonic program. That leaves cabin technology and amenities, and Aboulafia isn't convinced that alone justifies the next price jump. His guess is manufacturers keep extending range and refining cabins incrementally rather than delivering a dramatic leap.

Where the risks actually sit

All three panelists pointed to the same pressure points. A broader economic downturn. An AI-driven equity pullback. An escalation in Middle East conflict that spills further into fuel prices and trade. None of them are forecasting a downturn, since none of the leading indicators point that way yet. Deliveries, pre-owned demand, and flight activity have all stayed strong through the first half of 2026.

Ostrove noted that even a disruption wouldn't hit the industry from a position of weakness. Pre-owned inventory is starting from a low base and backlogs are long, so the industry has room to absorb a shock before it shows up in used aircraft pricing or delivery schedules.

Schwab's baseline outlook calls for continued growth through the rest of the decade, with a leveling off toward more stable growth heading into the 2030s.