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JETNET iQ Market Monitor | May 26 | Edition 3

The Bizav Split: Why This Cycle Looks Like Growth and Disruption at the Same Time

Global departures are up nearly 5% year over year on an April TTM basis. TTM pre-owned transaction growth compressed from more than 15% to just +2% in the space of a few months. Both things are true at the same time. Here is what the data says about why.

That split is what this month's Market Monitor is built to explain. Four findings are built to explain the data — each one points to something that will not show up in any single headline figure.

 

Richard Koe & Nick Koscinski · WINGX Research ·  5 min read

 

Edition 3 Market Monitor JETNET iQ

 

Download the Full 67-page Market Monitor

 

The full JETNET Market Monitor is built to answer that question — not just tell you the headline, but show you the structure underneath it.  

Executive Summary: Highlights Across Market Sectors

Macro & Wealth

Global GDP growth held at 3.4% in 2025 with the 2026 forecast revised down to 3.1%, reflecting trade tensions and the US-Israel-Iran conflict. UHNWI population reached a record 684,000+, US corporate profits hit all-time highs in Q1 2026 at $3.9 trillion, and equity markets are showing tentative recovery — though remain highly volatile following the Strait of Hormuz closure.

 

Bizjet Activity

Global business jet departures totalled 3.95 million on an April 2026 TTM basis, up 4.9%. Latin America (+9.8%) and Africa (+13.0%) led regional growth, while the Middle East contracted 17.1% YTD following the February conflict outbreak.

 

New Deliveries

Global bizjet deliveries totalled 769 on an April 2026 TTM basis, down 1.5% from the prior period and pulling back from the 818 units delivered in full-year 2025. OEM order books remain at decade-highs, with the combined backlog of the four major OEMs reaching $58.2bn in Q1 2026.

 

Pre-Owned Market

The pre-owned market has seen roughly 1,800 aircraft monthly for sale against nearly 2,800 transactions on a TTM basis. The TTM transaction trend rose above 15% in December 2025, before softening to just +2% in April 2026 as the Middle East conflict and macro uncertainty weighed on buyer confidence.

 

Emerging Markets

Regions outside North America and Europe accounted for almost 15% of global departures TTM, with Latin America and Africa outpacing mature markets by a wide margin. The Middle East saw a sharp reversal post-conflict, with fuel uplift running more than 40% below pre-conflict norms through Week 15 2026, with tentative signs of recovery in recent weeks.


Four findings that explain the split

The full report runs to 67 pages. These four findings are the ones that tend to shift how professionals read the market — not because the numbers are surprising, but because of what they suggest when you put them together.

 

Finding 01 —  Flight activity is strong and broad-based — but the Middle East is still feeling the impacts of the conflict. 

Key stat: Global departures reached 3.95 million on an April 2026 TTM basis, up 4.9% year over year. North America accounted for 71.3% of worldwide activity.

Activity data across operator types and cabin classes shows genuine momentum. Fractional Ownership is one of the standout performers, expanding 10.0% on a TTM basis, 11.6% YTD, and 13.0% in April alone — one of the most consistent outperformers across all three timeframes. Medium Jets have been the standout cabin class so far in 2026, up 7.0% vs YTD 2025, driven by transcontinental capability and strong fractional fleet deployment.

  • Africa and Latin America led regional TTM growth at +13.0% and +9.8% respectively
  • Corporate Flight Departments remain under pressure, contracting 5.9% on a TTM basis, 7.7% YTD, and 9.5% in April
  • March 2026 recorded the largest single month of fuel uplift in the WINGX dataset, driven by Spring Break leisure travel and TSA displacement demand
  • The Middle East contracted 17.1% YTD and 32.6% in April alone following the February conflict outbreak
  • Business aviation serves 20x more unique city pairs than the top four global airlines combined — over 374,000 unique city pairs on a TTM basis
 
Finding 02 — The two strongest demand predictors are both at record highs — and that makes the softening harder to read. 

Key stat: UHNWI population reached a record 684,300+ globally in 2025, up from 658,000 in 2024. Both UHNWI growth and US corporate profits show a 0.84 correlation with global and US bizjet departures respectively.

The macro foundation underneath business aviation demand has rarely looked stronger on paper. US corporate profits hit their highest level on record in Q1 2026 at $3.9 trillion, with quarterly year-over-year growth exceeding 15%. The UHNWI population is projected to grow at a 5.5% CAGR through 2028. M&A activity rebounded sharply in 2025 with deal value reaching $4 trillion, and the full-year 2026 estimate of $4.7 trillion would represent the strongest M&A year since the 2021 peak.

  • Global equity markets have delivered exceptional returns since 2016, with the S&P 500 recovering tentatively after early-year volatility
  • Consumer sentiment reached a record low in May 2026 — the third consecutive monthly decline — driven by Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions
  • US inflation has plateaued since mid-2024, remaining stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target and limiting room for rate cuts
  • The US Federal Funds Rate fell to an average of 3.64% in early 2026; the ECB cut more aggressively, with its rate at 2.15% by Q1 2026
  • An estimated $84 to $124 trillion in assets is expected to pass from Baby Boomers to younger generations over the next two decades, peaking between 2030 and 2045
 
Finding 03 —  The +5% departure figure is not broad-based. Fractional is pulling away from every other operator type. 

Key stat: Commercial aviation disruption from TSA staffing shortfalls sent business aviation demand higher in Washington DC, New York, Houston, Atlanta, and New Orleans — all five metro areas posted positive bizjet growth in March while scheduled airline departures declined across each city.

794 bizjets were delivered globally in 2025. OEM backlogs across the top four manufacturers hit a combined record of $54.6 billion, up 10.8% YOY. Book-to-bill ratios above 1.0x at Bombardier, Gulfstream, and Embraer mean orders are outpacing deliveries. Pre-owned transactions rebounded 11.7% to 2,813 deals — approaching the pre-pandemic norm of ~2,700–2,800 annually.  

The pre-owned transaction trend rose above 15% year over year in December 2025, before compressing to just +2% in April 2026. The Apr-26 TTM total of 2,771 pre-owned transactions represents 2.2% growth — a sharp deceleration from the +16.8% full-year 2025 growth rate. Average days on market reached 98 days, up 11.3% versus the prior TTM period. Pre-owned asking prices have continued their gradual correction into 2026, with Large Jets now just 11% above 2019 levels.

  • NetJets maintained its dominant position with 516k TTM departures at 13% of global activity, now approximately 65% above pre-COVID levels
  • Flexjet posted 15.1% TTM growth and is nearly tripling its 2019 activity levels
  • Wheels Up continues its prolonged contraction, declining 22% on an April 2026 TTM basis, now below 2019 levels
  • Total pre-owned transaction value on an April 2026 TTM basis reached $19.25bn, down from $20.80bn in full-year 2025
  • Newest aircraft (0-5 years old) remain exceptionally scarce at just 5% of for-sale inventory, down from 6% in 2025 and 9% in 2015
     
Finding 04 — Emerging markets outside North America and Europe drive future growth — the Middle East is the near-term risk that changes the picture. 

Key stat: Industry OEM backlog reached $58.2bn in Q1 2026. Bombardier's backlog surged 43.0% year over year, driven by demand for the Global 8000. Gulfstream maintains the largest backlog at $22.3bn, up 17.4%.

Regions outside North America and Europe accounted for almost 15% of global departures on a TTM basis, with Latin America and Africa outpacing mature markets by a wide margin. The Middle East saw fuel uplift running more than 40% below pre-conflict norms through Week 15 2026, though Week 20 briefly exceeded the pre-conflict baseline before Week 21 pulled back again. The global installed business jet fleet has grown from 11,000 aircraft in 2001 to roughly 25,500 as of April 2026 — a 3.4% compound annual growth rate sustained across 25 years of economic cycles.

  • For-sale inventory as a percentage of the fleet was 6.7% in 2026 YTD, well below the 9-12% levels observed during 2014-2020
  • 75% of for-sale inventory is now 16+ years old through April 2026, up from 70% last year and 57% in 2015
  • Aircraft retirements totalled 229 units in 2025, or 0.9% of the installed base — well below the 2015-2022 average of approximately 275 units annually
  • Super Midsize Jets lead all segments at 32.6 average hours per tail YTD, 19.9% above 2019 levels and 3.0% ahead of 2025 YTD
  • The Embraer Phenom 300 is the most active bizjet type globally with 316,000 departures in the April 2026 TTM, growing 15% year over year

WHAT THE DATA IS SIGNALING

US-Israel-Iran Conflict: Implications for Business Aviation

The conflict that broke out on 28 February produced an immediate and severe suppression of Middle East business aviation activity, with fuel uplift holding more than 40% below pre-conflict norms. Week 20 marked the first week to briefly exceed the pre-conflict baseline — but Week 21 pulled back, confirming the market has not yet normalized.


THE MARKET PILOT

JETNET WEBINAR SERIES · May 14, 2026

Watch the Webinar Recap - contact richard.koe@wingx-advance.com to request access to the slides. 

Watch the FIFA World Cup discussion — contact richard.koe@wingx-advance.com to request access to the slides and recording.


FREE DOWNLOAD  -  FULL REPORT

Get all 67 pages - the complete Market Monitor

These four findings are a starting point. The full report covers what each of the trends means for aircraft that operators are planning to buy or sell, and what the regional breakdown of where business aviation is growing and where it is contracting tells you about market positioning heading into H2 2026.

Built for people who work with aircraft data every day.

  • 67 pages of structured analysis combining JETNET transaction and inventory data with WINGX global flight intelligence
  • Sections: Macro Climate, Aircraft Activity, Aircraft Market, Aircraft Inventory
  • Sources: JETNET, WINGX, IMF, FRED, Knight Frank, OEM Filings
  • Includes OEM backlog, operator rankings, corridor data, fleet utilisation, and pricing trends

 

 

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Download the Full 67-page Market Monitor 

 

 

 

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