JIQ Market Barometer | September 2026 | Edition 7

Middle East Clawing Back While Global Activity, Utilization and Order Books Push Higher Through August

Business jet departures rose 4.5% worldwide over the last twelve months. The active fleet is being flown harder than at any point since before the pandemic, and the major OEMs are sitting on a combined backlog of $61.6 billion. Through August, business aviation looks to be in good shape.

That said, the energy shock from earlier this year hasn’t finished working its way through. Pre-owned transaction growth was running above 15% year-over-year in December and has since slowed to the low single digits. The Middle East, a small but fast-growing market until February, is still down on the year, although its monthly declines have narrowed a lot. Asking prices are coming down, and large-cabin values are back to roughly where they were in 2019.

The full JIQ Market Barometer combines JETNET’s serial-number-level asset data with WINGX’s tail-level flight activity and reconciles the two. All four chapters below use an August 2026 trailing-twelve-month basis.

Richard Koe & Nick Koscinski · WINGX Research · 5 min read

Download the Full 77-page JIQ Market Barometer

Chapter 01

Executive Summary

The macro picture is holding up, but it now cuts both ways. UHNWI wealth and corporate profitability, the two structural drivers of business aviation demand, are still firmly positive. On the other side, the early-2026 energy shock has reversed disinflation, dragged on consumer confidence, and made further rate cuts harder to justify.

Key Takeaways

• GDP growth held up, but the outlook was trimmed. Global GDP grew 3.5% in 2025. The IMF has since cut its 2026 forecast to 3.0%, citing trade tensions and the US-Israel-Iran conflict.

• The wealth base keeps growing. The UHNWI population hit a record of more than 684,000 in 2025, up from 658,000 a year earlier. It’s projected to grow at a 5.6% CAGR through 2031.

• The biggest untapped pool is outside North America. Comparing wealth to fleet size, North America’s mature base has already largely converted to ownership. Australasia and APAC are the largest remaining opportunity, with a wealth base that far outruns the installed fleet.

• Corporate profits hit another record. US corporate profits reached a record $4.3 trillion in Q2 2026, up nearly 30% year-over-year. Rather than buckling under the conflict, they topped the Q1 high.

• The two best demand signals are both still rising. UHNWI population (0.84) and corporate profits (0.83) correlate more closely with bizjet departures than any other structural driver in our dataset, and both are still climbing.

• Fuel is the clearest downside. Crude and jet fuel had their sharpest move since 2022 around the Strait of Hormuz disruption. Prices eased through the spring and summer but have now turned higher again instead of continuing to normalize.

• Disinflation has gone into reverse. US inflation has settled back in the low 3s and the Euro Area has drifted up toward 3%. That undoes earlier progress and limits how far central banks can cut.

• Consumer confidence is still weak. University of Michigan sentiment is near record lows at 52, a persistent soft spot in an otherwise firm demand picture.

Chapter 02

Aircraft Activity

Executive Summary

Flight activity shows the macro strength turning into real demand, though the 4.5% headline isn’t evenly spread. Demand is concentrating in flexible ownership models and emerging markets while traditional corporate structures shrink. The Middle East is still climbing back from its sharp February reversal.

Key Takeaways

• North America drives a strong headline. Global departures reached 3.99 million on an August 2026 TTM basis, up 4.5%. North America accounted for 71.6% of that activity.
• Emerging markets lead, and the Middle East is recovering. Africa (+10.3%) and Latin America (+5.8%) posted the fastest TTM growth. The Middle East is still down 7.0% on the year, but its monthly declines have narrowed from more than 20% early in the year to -5.7% in August.
• Fractional keeps pulling ahead. Fractional ownership grew 10.3% on a TTM basis and 6.3% in August. It has been one of the most consistent outperformers across every timeframe.
• Corporate structures are under pressure. Corporate Flight Departments shrank 7.5% on a TTM basis and Branded Charter slipped 1.2%. Both suggest demand is shifting toward fractional programs.
• The fleet is working harder. Average global utilization so far this year is 21.0 hours per tail per month, 10.4% above 2019. Super Midsize jets lead at 30.2 hours.
• The active fleet is growing, but demand is growing faster. Monthly active aircraft are approaching 20,500 and hours per tail are still rising, so demand growth continues to outpace supply additions.
• The fractional leaders are diverging. NetJets holds 13.3% of global activity, up 10.2%, and Flexjet grew 12.5%. Wheels Up is the exception: down 26.7% on a TTM basis and below its 2019 traffic.
• Connectivity is still a big advantage. Business aviation serves roughly nineteen times as many unique city pairs as the top global airlines combined.

Chapter 03

Aircraft Market

Executive Summary

The shock shows up most clearly in the transaction market. Pre-owned velocity has slowed sharply from its late-2025 pace and asking prices are correcting, even as new deliveries keep recovering and OEM order books sit at decade highs. The market is taking a near-term hit to confidence, but multi-year demand visibility is intact.

Key Takeaways

• Deliveries are still recovering. Full-year 2025 deliveries hit a post-GFC high of 814 units, beating the 2019 peak of 804. 2026 is tracking modestly higher: the baseline forecast of 830 would be another record, and the top end is near 853. Growth should slow to around 2% after the near-8% gain in 2025.
• Pre-owned velocity slowed hard. TTM transactions reached 2,823, up 3.5%, well down from 16.8% growth for full-year 2025. The TTM growth rate cooled from above +15% in December to roughly +3% by August.
• Large-cabin trading went the other way. Large Jets posted the strongest cabin-class growth at +17.9%, with 825 transactions. Small Jets, still the most actively traded class at 1,320, eased slightly.
• Asking prices are settling back toward normal. On a TTM basis, Small Jets averaged $3.53mn and Medium Jets $5.11mn. Large Jets eased to $14.38mn, effectively back to 2019 levels after leading the pandemic-era surge.
• Liquidity depends more and more on age. Average days on market rose 3.0% to 96. The newest aircraft (0-5 years) still sell in about 50 days, while every age band from 16 years up sits above 100.
• Order books are at decade highs. The four major OEMs have a combined backlog of $61.6 billion. Gulfstream and Bombardier hold almost 75% of it, and Bombardier’s backlog is up 35.4% year-over-year.
• Book-to-bill still points to expansion. Bombardier and Gulfstream ran at 1.5x in Q2 2026 and Embraer at 1.1x. All four manufacturers grew their backlogs, which extends production visibility into 2027-28.
• Fractional providers are taking a bigger share of new aircraft. Program holders took 18% of new deliveries so far in 2026, up from 10% before the pandemic. End users are still the largest buyers at 64%.

Chapter 04

Aircraft Inventory

Executive Summary

Supply is the structural counterweight to the noise on the demand side. Transactions have slowed, but for-sale inventory isn’t rebuilding. It keeps drifting lower as a share of the fleet, which keeps the market seller-friendly. The inventory base is also getting older, and a retirement wave looks more and more likely.

Key Takeaways

• Supply and demand are roughly balanced. About 1,750 aircraft were for sale in a typical month against 2,823 TTM transactions. That’s a modest easing from full-year 2025, which had 1,835 aircraft in inventory and nearly 2,970 transactions.
• Inventory is still tight by historical standards. The inventory-to-transaction ratio is about 0.62:1, well below the 0.85:1 typical of 2013-2019.
• The for-sale share keeps falling. Inventory dropped to 6.6% of the operational fleet on a TTM basis, down from 7.3% last year and far below the 9-12% range of the previous decade.
• The market is splitting into two tiers by age. Aircraft 16 years or older now make up 74% of for-sale inventory, up from 70% a year ago and 57% in 2015. The newest aircraft are just 6% of listings.
• The fleet has grown steadily for 25 years. The global installed fleet has more than doubled since 2001, from 11,000 aircraft to roughly 25,600. Resilient demand and very few retirements kept it growing through several cycles.
• Low retirements are storing up future supply. Only 245 aircraft were scrapped in the TTM, around 1% of the fleet and still below historical norms. A growing base of 1990s and 2000s aircraft is nearing the end of its economic life, so a retirement wave is probably coming.

Bizjets only; turboprops excluded. Data through August 2026 unless otherwise noted. Sources: JETNET; WINGX; Global ATC and ADSB records; FRED; IMF; Knight Frank; company filings. 2026 figures may be subject to revision as transactions and deliveries are reported and verified.

FREE DOWNLOAD  -  FULL REPORT

Get all 77 pages - the complete JIQ Market Barometer 

These four findings are a starting point. The full report covers what each of the trends means for aircraft that operators are planning to buy or sell, and what the regional breakdown of where business aviation is growing and where it is contracting tells you about market positioning heading into H3 2026.

Built for people who work with aircraft data every day.

• 77 pages of structured analysis combining JETNET transaction and inventory data with WINGX global flight intelligence
• Sections: Macro Climate, Aircraft Activity, Aircraft Market, Aircraft Inventory
• Sources: JETNET, WINGX, IMF, FRED, Knight Frank, OEM Filings
• Includes OEM backlog, operator rankings, corridor data, fleet utilisation, and pricing trends