Conflict Cuts Middle East Activity 19%, But Global Bizjet Demand Just Hit a Record 

Global business jet departures grew 5.1% over the last twelve months and US corporate profits hit a record high, while the ultra-wealthy population that drives most of the industry’s demand is also at an all-time high. By almost any headline measure, the market through May 2026 looks healthy.

And yet, the energy shock that began earlier this year seems to have some negative impacts on the market, and it is still working its way through the system. Fuel costs have posted their sharpest spike since 2022, consumer sentiment has hit a record low, the Middle East (a small but fast-growing market until February), has been stifled, and pre-owned transaction velocity, running above 15% year-over-year in December, has decelerated to low single digits.

Both narratives can be true at the same time, and the full Market Monitor aims to join them together by joining JETNET’s serial-number-level asset data with WINGX’s tail-level flight activity. Here is how the four chapters read on a May 2026 trailing-twelve-month basis.

Richard Koe & Nick Koscinski · WINGX Research ·  5 min read

CHAPTER 01

Macro Climate

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The macro backdrop is best described as resilient but increasingly two-sided. The structural drivers of business aviation demand, UHNWI wealth and corporate profitability, remain firmly positive, but the early-2026 energy shock has begun to push against the other side of the ledger, reversing disinflation, weighing on consumer confidence, and complicating the path for further rate cuts.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Growth held, but the forecast was trimmed. Global GDP held at 3.4% in 2025, with the IMF’s 2026 forecast revised down 0.2 points to 3.1%, reflecting trade tensions and the US-Israel-Iran conflict.

• The wealth base keeps expanding. The UHNWI population reached a record of more than 684,000 in 2025, up from 658,000 a year earlier, and is projected to grow at a 5.5% CAGR through 2028.

• The largest latent pool is in APAC. A new wealth-to-fleet view shows 29.1 UHNWIs per based jet globally, but Australasia & APAC sits at 182.8, more than six times the benchmark, pointing to potential substantial unconverted demand.

• Corporate profits set a record. US corporate profits reached $3.95 trillion in Q1 2026, up more than 15% year-over-year, evidence the conflict did not weigh on first-quarter earnings as some had expected.

• The strongest demand signals are still rising. UHNWI population correlates with global departures at 0.84, and US corporate profits with US departures at 0.83, the two highest relationships in the dataset.

• Fuel is the clearest downside. Crude and jet fuel posted their sharpest move since 2022, with jet fuel rising faster than crude and widening the crack spread that bizav operators ultimately pay.

• Disinflation has reversed. US inflation has turned back toward 4% and the Euro Area above 3%, unwinding two years of progress and limiting central-bank room to cut.

   

• Consumer confidence hit a record low. University of Michigan sentiment fell to 45 in May, a third consecutive monthly decline.

CHAPTER 02

Aircraft Activity

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Flight activity is strong evidence that macro strength is translating into real demand, but the top view headline of 5.1% growth is not broad-based. Beneath it, demand is concentrating in flexible ownership models and emerging markets while traditional corporate structures contract, all while the Middle East has reversed sharply since the February conflict.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• A strong, North America-led headline. Global departures totaled 3.96 million on a May-26 TTM basis, up 5.1%, with North America accounted for 71% of activity.
• Emerging markets lead; the Middle East reversed. Latin America (+8.9%) and Africa (+10.1%) led TTM growth, while the Middle East contracted 19.1% year-to-date and 26.0% in May alone following the conflict.
• Fractional is pulling away from the market. Fractional ownership expanded 10.6% on a TTM basis, 11.8% year-to-date, and 12.4% in May, one of the most consistent outperformers across every timeframe.
• Corporate structures are under pressure. Corporate Flight Departments contracted 6.2% TTM, 8.6% year-to-date, and 12.5% in May; Branded Charter also softened, down 5.2% in May.
• The fleet is being worked harder. Year-to-date global average utilization reached 22.0 hours per tail per month, 9.4% above 2019 levels, with Super Midsize jets leading at 32.1 hours.
• Mid-cabin demand is accelerating. Medium jets were the standout cabin class, up 6.9% year-to-date, as fractional fleets concentrate in mid-to-large cabins.
• The connectivity advantage is structural. Business aviation served roughly 375,800 unique city pairs over the TTM period, about 20 times the 19,100 served by the top four global airlines combined.
• Bizav has decoupled from the airlines. North American bizjet departures now run about 35% above 2019 levels, against roughly 7% for scheduled airlines, a gap that has held since the pandemic.

CHAPTER 03

Aircraft Market

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The transaction market is where the shock is most visible. New deliveries have eased, and pre-owned velocity has decelerated sharply from its late-2025 pace, even as OEM order books sit at record highs. The market is absorbing a near-term confidence shock against a backdrop of multi-year demand visibility.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Deliveries eased. Global deliveries totaled 751 on a May-26 TTM basis, down 4.3% and a pullback from the 819 delivered in full-year 2025; North America held a 90% share at 673 units.
• Pre-owned velocity decelerated hard. Transactions reached 2,787 on a TTM basis, up 3.6%, a sharp step down from the 17.0% full-year 2025 growth rate, with monthly year-over-year readings negative through the first five months of 2026.
• Transaction value eased off the peak. Total value was $19.47 billion on a TTM basis, down from $20.84 billion in full-year 2025, with large-cabin jets accounting for 59% of value.
• Liquidity is splitting by age. Average days on market rose to 99, up 10.6%, though the newest aircraft (0–5 years) still sell in about 51 days.
• Order books are at records. Industry backlog reached $58.2 billion by Q1 2026, with Bombardier’s backlog up 43% year-over-year and Gulfstream holding the largest at $22.3 billion.
• Buyers of new hold longer. Owners of new aircraft hold them about 6.36 years versus 3.91 years for used, a consistent gap of roughly 2.5 years, with Falcon owners holding longest at 7.42 years.
• Owners stay within the make. A brand-loyalty matrix shows owners overwhelmingly repurchase within make: Citation retains 93.4% of repeat buyers, while Gulfstream is the single largest net recipient of owners switching from other makes.
• Fractional providers are taking more new aircraft. Program holders captured 19% of new deliveries so far in 2026, up from 10% pre-pandemic, though that share may ease toward the 15–17% range as the year progresses.

CHAPTER 04

Aircraft Inventory

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Supply is the structural counterweight to the demand-side noise. Even as transaction velocity softens, for-sale inventory is not rebuilding, it continues to drift lower as a share of the fleet, keeping the market in seller-friendly territory, while an aging inventory base sets up a probable retirement wave ahead.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Supply and demand remain in rough balance. Roughly 1,800 aircraft were available for sale monthly against about 2,800 transactions on a TTM basis, a modest easing from full-year 2025’s 1,835 and 2,964.
• Inventory is still tight by historical standards. The inventory-to-transaction ratio sits at about 0.64:1, still well below the typical 0.85:1 of 2013–2019.
• For-sale share keeps drifting lower. Inventory fell to 6.7% of the installed fleet in 2026 year-to-date, down from 7.3% in 2025 and far below the 9–12% range of 2014–2020.
• The market is increasingly two-tier by age. 74% of for-sale inventory is now 16 years or older, up from 70% a year ago and 57% in 2015, while the newest aircraft are just 5% of listings.
• The fleet has compounded steadily for 25 years. The global installed fleet reached roughly 25,500 aircraft as of May 2026, a 3.4% compound annual growth rate since 2001 and sustained through multiple cycles.
• Low retirements are storing up future supply. Just 229 aircraft were scrapped in 2025 (0.9% of the fleet), below the 2015–2022 average of about 275, setting up a probable scrapping wave as 1990s and 2000s aircraft approach end of economic life.

The throughline across all four chapters is a market still expanding on its strongest structural foundations, record wealth, record corporate profits, a fleet that is being flown harder than ever, while a still-evolving energy shock works through its more sensitive parts: confidence, fuel costs, transaction velocity, and one fast-growing region.

Bizjets only; turboprops excluded. Data through May 2026 unless otherwise noted. Sources: JETNET; WINGX; Global ATC and ADSB records; FRED; IMF; Knight Frank; company filings. 2026 figures may be subject to revision as transactions and deliveries are reported and verified.

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• 74 pages of structured analysis combining JETNET transaction and inventory data with WINGX global flight intelligence
• Sections: Macro Climate, Aircraft Activity, Aircraft Market, Aircraft Inventory
• Sources: JETNET, WINGX, IMF, FRED, Knight Frank, OEM Filings
• Includes OEM backlog, operator rankings, corridor data, fleet utilisation, and pricing trends